This report summarizes the monthly statistics for the Western Region of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR). The SGBAR trading area also includes the Eastern Region of Southern Georgian Bay due to an amalgamation of the Midland Real Estate Board and the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board in 2014. However, this report is restricted to the Western Region, formerly known as the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS®.
The supply issue that we experienced throughout 2016 has definitely carried into the New Year! Even when we thought listing inventory didn’t have much more room to fall based on near record low listing inventory for 2016, 169 new listings were reported for the month of January 2017 vs 248 in January 2016, marking a 32% decrease year over year.
Properties listed and not sold for one reason or another are reported as expired. With ongoing demand surpassing inventory, expired listings have dropped 48% from 161 listings in January 2016 to 84 listings in January 2017. And with 282 listings reported expired in January 2015, it’s likely that the biggest factor to affect the market this year will be the continued lack of homes for sale in the region.
This shortage of inventory is expected to help push up prices again this year. Sales were up 6% with 111 sales reported in January 2017 vs 105 sales in January 2016. Total Dollar Volume for the month increased significantly, showing a 44% gain over January 2016. Residential single family home sale prices within the Western Region increased year over year in all areas. Collingwood’s average price for January 2017 came in at $452,141, up 21.9% from $370,946 in January 2016. The Blue Mountains average price in January 2017 was $681,412 up 10.4% from $616,989 in January 2016. Clearview’s January 2017 average sale price was $489,336 vs $359,918 in January 2016, boasting a 36.0% increase. Grey Highlands reported a January 2017 average sale price of $503,337 vs $410,271 in January 2016 marking a 22.7% increase.
The ratio between the number of homes sold and the number of new listings entering the market is known as the monthly sales-to-new listing ratio. The ratio was 65.68% for January 2017, up from 42.34% for January 2016. A sales-to-new listings ratio is a useful way to gauge market conditions. A ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively. Throughout most of 2016 the ratio indicated a seller’s market and January 2017 is no exception.
There were just 2.0 months of inventory at the end of January 2017, down from 3.5 months recorded January 2016, on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is the amount of time it would take to sell all current listings at the current sales pace if no new listings became available. Four to five months of supply is average. If the number is smaller, market conditions are tight with demand exceeding supply. If the number is greater, it reflects the opposite.
Ongoing limited supply and robust demand for homes in Southern Georgian Bay will most likely continue to drive prices up in 2017 until affordability issues become one of the influences that may affect the market in 2017. However for the time being, low interest rates, affordable home prices compared to the GTA and buyers of all ages seeking the quality of life offered in Southern Georgian Bay will sustain current market conditions.
Prepared by: Diana Lea Berdini, Broker/Office Manager Collingwood/Owen Sound Chestnut Park Real Estate Limited, Brokerage